Exploring the intersection of obesity and gender in COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized Mexican patients: a comparative analysis of risk profiles using unsupervised machine learning

Introduction: Obesity and gender play a critical role in shaping the outcomes of COVID-19 disease. These two factors have a dynamic relationship with each other, as well as other risk factors, which hinders interpretation of how they influence severity and disease progression. This work aimed to study differences in COVID-19 disease outcomes through analysis of risk profiles stratified by gender and obesity status.

Methods: This study employed an unsupervised clustering analysis, using Mexico’s national COVID-19 hospitalization dataset, which contains demographic information and health outcomes of patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. Patients were segmented into four groups by obesity and gender, with participants’ attributes and clinical outcome data described for each. Then, Consensus and PAM clustering methods were used to identify distinct risk profiles based on underlying patient characteristics. Risk profile discovery was completed on 70% of records, with the remaining 30% available for validation.

Results: Data from 88,536 hospitalized patients were analyzed. Obesity, regardless of gender, was linked with higher odds of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions. Men tended to have higher frequencies of ICU admissions and pneumonia and higher mortality rates than women. Within each of the four analysis groups (divided based on gender and obesity status), clustering analyses identified four to five distinct risk profiles. For example, among women with obesity, there were four profiles; those with a hypertensive profile were more likely to have pneumonia, and those with a diabetic profile were most likely to be admitted to the ICU.

Conclusion: Our analysis emphasizes the complex interplay between obesity, gender, and health outcomes in COVID-19 hospitalizations. The identified risk profiles highlight the need for personalized treatment strategies for COVID-19 patients and can assist in planning for patterns of deterioration in future waves of SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. This research underscores the importance of tackling obesity as a major public health concern, given its interplay with many other health conditions, including infectious diseases such as COVID-19.