Applying a Dynamic Model to Assess the Carrying Capacity of Natural Resources in the Great Lakes Environment

A system dynamics method to assess carrying capacity of a defined natural environment is presented.
The proposed method seeks to relate per capita resource usage to ranges of population and per
capita consumption beyond which the system is not viable relative to population dependent resource
constraints. It provides a platform to investigate system behavior through system dynamics
simulations where populations change, natural resources decay due to stressor impacts, and
feedback occurs via implementation of policy. Application of the model to a case study of Total
Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) of phosphorous in Bear Lake, a Lake Michigan estuary (USA), shows
the major total phosphorous (P) loading contribution is anthropogenic land use development. Three
scenarios are quantitatively explored by assuming changes in land use and/or loading rates.
Simulation results show tradeoffs between reduction of total P and land use; economic development
can be flexibly evaluated against targets of loading reduction trajectories.