A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Analysis of the Drivers of Urban Expansion on Peri-Urban Lands in Ilorin, Nigeria

Aim: To examine the drivers of urban expansion on peri-urban areas in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.

Study Design: Cross-sectional survey research.

Place and Duration of Study: Eyenkorin, Kwara State 2022.

Methodology: From the literature review, fifteen (15) drivers of urban expansion at the peri-urban areas were highlighted. Afterwards a pilot survey was done on the 15 factors among experts in academia with relevant experiences in the built environment. The 15 factors were affirmed adequate for the study. A structured questionnaire survey on a 4-Point Likert Scale was administered to 332 household heads in the study area to colate opinions on how the highlighted factors influence urban expansion on the peripheral land. Weighted Mean Score, Factor Analysis and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation were used to analyze the factors driving urban expansion in the study area. Weighted Mean Score was used to evaluate the individual factors driving urban expansion of peripheral lands in the study area. The Factor Analysis helped to identify the principal individual factors driving urban expansion at the study area and how they are related with to one another. Fuzzy Synthetic matrix was used to reveal the categories of factors driving urban expansion at the study area in order of their importance.

Results: From study, Occupation and living related factors with a criticality index of 3.12 are the most critical drivers of urban expansion towards the periphery in the study area. This is followed by Accessibility comfort and Land speculation factors with a criticality index of 2.96; and Religious and Institutional factors with a criticality index of 2.72. However, in the study area, Socio-Cultural related factors with a criticality index of 1.22 are not significant drivers of urban expansion towards the periphery in the study area.

Conclusion: The study revealed that there has been exponential spatial urban land use expansion in the peripheral area considered for the study. The study revealed that the factors driving urban expansion to the peripheral area centered around job/occupation related factors, housing and living factors, accessibility factors, religious and institutional factors. For the purpose of environmental preservation and a structured land use, attention should be given to the pace and pattern of urban expansion to achieve a sustainable land use. Hence, there is need to start giving attention to how urban expansion occurs and the land use activities that clusters around the landmarks driving the urban expansion at the peri-urban areas in order to ensure sustainable urban expansion especially in developing countries where this can be an oversight. This will help to optimize a balanced urban land use dynamics for the present and the future preservation of the environment.