Construction of a Nomogram Based on a Hypoxia-Related lncRNA Signature to Improve the Prediction of Gastric Cancer Prognosis

Background: Gastric cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors and has a poor prognosis. Hypoxia is related to the poor prognosis of cancer patients. We searched for hypoxia-related long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) to predict both overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of gastric cancer patients.

Methods: We obtained hypoxia-related lncRNA expression profiles and clinical follow-up data of patients with gastric cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas and the Molecular Signatures Database. The patients were randomly divided into a training group, test group and combined group. The hypoxia-related prognostic signature was constructed by Lasso regression and Cox regression models, the prognoses in different groups were compared by Kaplan–Meier (K-M) analysis, and the accuracy of the prognostic model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: A hypoxia-related prognostic signature comprising 10 lncRNAs was constructed to predict both OS and DFS in gastric cancer. In the training, test and combined groups, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the formula. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients in the high-risk group have poor prognoses, and the difference was significant in the subgroup analyses. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the predictive power of the model prediction is more accurate than that of standard benchmarks. The signature differed across Helicobacter pylori (Hp) status and T stages. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the signature is an independent risk factor for both OS and DFS. A clinically predictive nomogram combining the lncRNA signature and clinical features was constructed; the nomogram accurately predicted both OS and DFS and had high clinical application value. Weighted correlation network analysis combined with enrichment analysis showed that the primary pathways were the PI3K-Akt, JAK-STAT, and IL-17 signaling pathways. The target genes NOX4, COL8A1, and CHST1 were associated with poor prognosis in the Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis, Gene Expression Omnibus, and K-M Plotter databases.

Conclusions: Our 10-lncRNA prognostic signature and nomogram are accurate, reliable tools for predicting both OS and DFS in gastric cancer.