Probabilistic planning for ligament-balanced TKA—Identification of critical ligament properties

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) failures are often attributed to unbalanced knee ligament loading. The current study aims to develop a probabilistic planning process to optimize implant component positioning that achieves a ligament-balanced TKA. This planning process accounts for both subject-specific uncertainty, in terms of ligament material properties and attachment sites, and surgical precision related to the TKA process typically used in clinical practice. The consequent uncertainty in the implant position parameters is quantified by means of a surrogate model in combination with a Monte Carlo simulation. The samples for the Monte Carlo simulation are generated through Bayesian parameter estimation on the native knee model in such a way that each sample is physiologically relevant. In this way, a subject-specific uncertainty is accounted for. A sensitivity analysis, using the delta-moment-independent sensitivity measure, is performed to identify the most critical ligament parameters. The designed process is capable of estimating the precision with which the targeted ligament-balanced TKA can be realized and converting this into a success probability. This study shows that without additional subject-specific information (e.g., knee kinematic measurements), a global success probability of only 12% is estimated. Furthermore, accurate measurement of reference strains and attachment sites critically improves the success probability of the pre-operative planning process. To allow more precise planning, more accurate identification of these ligament properties is required. This study underlines the relevance of investigating in vivo or intraoperative measurement techniques to minimize uncertainty in ligament-balanced pre-operative planning results, particularly prioritizing the measurement of ligament reference strains and attachment sites.