Winter Wheat Cultivar Recommendation Based on Expected Environment Productivity

We used 5 years of data from multi-environmental trials conducted in Poland to assess average winter wheat yield based on selected environmental factors to recommend cultivars depending on their performance in environments of different productivity. Average expected yields in particular environments were calculated using a model based on analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), which describes the relationship between winter wheat yield and environmental factors of soil suitability and pH, drought length and Selyaninov’s Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC) in 10-day periods. The cultivar performance was evaluated using linear regression. The cultivar yield estimated by the mixed model was considered the dependent variable, whereas the environmental mean yields, estimated by ANCOVA, were considered independent variables. The cultivars were ranked according to the estimated yield in environments of determined average wheat productivity. Higher yielding cultivars were divided into two groups: widely and narrowly adapted cultivars, which were then recommended. The novelty of this study stems from the consideration of the environmental productivity in the recommendation process, the indication of widely adapted cultivars to be grown in a broad range of productivity sites and the selection of cultivars with narrow adaptation, which may outperform cultivars of wide adaptation in homogeneous fields. This study confirmed the importance of soil suitability and HTC for winter wheat yield. Direct application of our results is possible in Poland and in other countries with similar conditions.